New Seat Details - Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	25,998	44.1%
LAB	25,739	43.7%
LIB	5,645	9.6%
Green	1,113	1.9%
UKIP	429	0.7%
CON Majority	259	0.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: Map

List of old seats forming part of Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Camborne Pendarves	3,049	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,101	902	96	0	35	0	0	0	2,134
Cornwall	Camborne Roskear	3,261	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,220	1,248	115	0	38	0	0	0	2,621
Cornwall	Camborne Trelowarren	3,036	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,116	1,140	117	0	99	0	0	0	2,472
Cornwall	Camborne Treslothan	2,887	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	998	1,135	192	0	139	0	0	0	2,464
Cornwall	Camborne Treswithian	2,810	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	989	1,049	89	0	32	0	0	0	2,159
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	2,393	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	848	757	78	0	104	0	0	0	1,787
Cornwall	Constantine, Mawnan and Budock	3,656	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,763	789	95	0	38	0	0	0	2,685
Cornwall	Crowan and Wendron	1,868	St Ives	708	569	61	0	22	0	0	0	1,360
Cornwall	Four Lanes	3,305	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,189	1,183	130	0	43	0	0	0	2,545
Cornwall	Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth	2,416	St Ives	914	717	106	0	59	0	0	0	1,796
Cornwall	Hayle North	3,387	St Ives	1,263	1,269	131	0	49	0	0	0	2,712
Cornwall	Hayle South	3,107	St Ives	1,131	1,096	119	0	42	0	0	0	2,388
Cornwall	Illogan	3,509	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,249	1,079	310	0	39	0	0	0	2,677
Cornwall	Lanner and Stithians	3,640	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,388	1,164	122	0	45	0	0	0	2,719
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	2,709	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,141	909	325	0	42	0	0	0	2,417
Cornwall	Mount Hawke and Portreath	3,447	Truro and Newquay	1,134	1,011	387	0	46	0	0	0	2,578
Cornwall	Pool and Tehidy	3,001	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	973	1,249	92	0	34	0	0	0	2,348
Cornwall	Redruth Central	2,792	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,130	898	104	0	31	0	0	0	2,163
Cornwall	Redruth North	4,210	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,373	1,853	141	0	53	0	0	0	3,420
Cornwall	Redruth South	2,893	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	995	1,159	114	0	37	0	0	0	2,305
Cornwall	St Agnes	418	Truro and Newquay	157	110	41	0	6	0	0	0	314
Cornwall	St Keverne and Meneage	474	St Ives	220	137	13	0	18	0	0	0	388
	Total	62,268		23,000	21,423	2,978	0	1,051	0	0	0	48,452

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Truro and Falmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	1,237	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	429	402	97	25	29	0	0	0	982
Cornwall	Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu	2,914	Truro and Newquay	1,411	736	217	42	18	0	0	0	2,424
Cornwall	Falmouth Arwenack	2,638	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,246	690	269	22	27	0	0	0	2,254
Cornwall	Falmouth Boslowick	3,591	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,121	1,104	579	68	26	0	0	0	2,898
Cornwall	Falmouth Penwerris	3,092	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	948	1,545	287	62	32	0	0	0	2,874
Cornwall	Falmouth Smithick	2,964	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	993	1,428	479	25	44	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Falmouth Trescobeas	3,363	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,049	1,350	301	73	76	0	0	0	2,849
Cornwall	Feock and Playing Place	3,649	Truro and Newquay	1,798	832	323	24	22	0	0	0	2,999
Cornwall	Ladock, St Clement and St Erme	3,410	Truro and Newquay	1,511	802	316	24	51	0	0	0	2,704
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	1,005	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	414	329	181	20	9	0	0	0	953
Cornwall	Newlyn and Goonhavern	3,072	Truro and Newquay	1,467	763	232	22	19	0	0	0	2,503
Cornwall	Penryn East and Mylor	3,904	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,344	1,171	646	66	33	0	0	0	3,260
Cornwall	Penryn West	3,239	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	981	1,206	686	68	28	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Perranporth	3,455	Truro and Newquay	1,358	1,090	320	27	31	0	0	0	2,826
Cornwall	Probus, Tregony and Grampound	2,620	Truro and Newquay	967	820	223	56	17	0	0	0	2,083
Cornwall	Roseland	2,687	Truro and Newquay	1,055	813	206	54	16	0	0	0	2,144
Cornwall	St Agnes	3,092	Truro and Newquay	1,098	737	590	17	27	0	0	0	2,469
Cornwall	Threemilestone and Gloweth	3,072	Truro and Newquay	1,050	1,014	469	26	23	0	0	0	2,582
Cornwall	Truro Boscawen	3,765	Truro and Newquay	1,381	1,357	468	31	113	0	0	0	3,350
Cornwall	Truro Redannick	3,368	Truro and Newquay	1,022	966	749	27	73	0	0	0	2,837
Cornwall	Truro Tregolls	3,460	Truro and Newquay	1,066	1,154	544	60	54	0	0	0	2,878
Cornwall	Truro Trehaverne	3,445	Truro and Newquay	1,418	1,021	284	59	64	0	0	0	2,846
	Total	67,042		25,127	21,330	8,466	898	832	0	0	0	56,653

The full details of these calculations are given on the Truro and Falmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth
Cornwall	Camborne Pendarves	2,972	Camborne and Redruth	1,101	902	96	0	35	0	0	0	2,134
Cornwall	Camborne Roskear	3,650	Camborne and Redruth	1,220	1,248	115	0	38	0	0	0	2,621
Cornwall	Camborne Trelowarren	3,441	Camborne and Redruth	1,116	1,140	117	0	99	0	0	0	2,472
Cornwall	Camborne Treslothan	3,430	Camborne and Redruth	998	1,135	192	0	139	0	0	0	2,464
Cornwall	Camborne Treswithian	3,008	Camborne and Redruth	989	1,049	89	0	32	0	0	0	2,159
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	2,488	Camborne and Redruth	848	757	78	0	104	0	0	0	1,787
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	1,296	Truro and Falmouth	429	402	97	25	29	0	0	0	982
Cornwall	Constantine, Mawnan and Budock	3,739	Camborne and Redruth	1,763	789	95	0	38	0	0	0	2,685
Cornwall	Falmouth Arwenack	2,971	Truro and Falmouth	1,246	690	269	22	27	0	0	0	2,254
Cornwall	Falmouth Boslowick	3,822	Truro and Falmouth	1,121	1,104	579	68	26	0	0	0	2,898
Cornwall	Falmouth Penwerris	3,789	Truro and Falmouth	948	1,545	287	62	32	0	0	0	2,874
Cornwall	Falmouth Smithick	3,916	Truro and Falmouth	993	1,428	479	25	44	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Falmouth Trescobeas	3,755	Truro and Falmouth	1,049	1,350	301	73	76	0	0	0	2,849
Cornwall	Four Lanes	3,543	Camborne and Redruth	1,189	1,183	130	0	43	0	0	0	2,545
Cornwall	Illogan	3,728	Camborne and Redruth	1,249	1,079	310	0	39	0	0	0	2,677
Cornwall	Lanner and Stithians	3,784	Camborne and Redruth	1,388	1,164	122	0	45	0	0	0	2,719
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	3,365	Camborne and Redruth	1,141	909	325	0	42	0	0	0	2,417
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	1,256	Truro and Falmouth	414	329	181	20	9	0	0	0	953
Cornwall	Penryn East and Mylor	4,298	Truro and Falmouth	1,344	1,171	646	66	33	0	0	0	3,260
Cornwall	Penryn West	3,913	Truro and Falmouth	981	1,206	686	68	28	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Pool and Tehidy	3,269	Camborne and Redruth	973	1,249	92	0	34	0	0	0	2,348
Cornwall	Redruth Central	3,013	Camborne and Redruth	1,130	898	104	0	31	0	0	0	2,163
Cornwall	Redruth North	4,762	Camborne and Redruth	1,373	1,853	141	0	53	0	0	0	3,420
Cornwall	Redruth South	3,209	Camborne and Redruth	995	1,159	114	0	37	0	0	0	2,305
	Total	80,417		25,998	25,739	5,645	429	1,113	0	0	0	58,924

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	George Eustice (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	80,417
Turnout:	73.3%

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: Overview

Introduction